Weather or not

Pretty windy just at the moment, one of our many sources of weather forcasting is Predict Wind. It's an Internet based weather app, well suited to slow mobile connections. Spookily accurate too.

So I was looking at the predicted winds etc. for this week using Predict Wind and indeed there Is a small window of opportunity on Thurs for our return to Preston, however the winds which will have been strong all week then fall light and variable. Actually they are all over the place!

Warning technical bit coming up!

The passage plan to sail from Carlingford Lough to Gut Bouy off the Ribble is very simple, it's around 120 nautical miles, for the first half of the trip to around about the Southern tip of the Calf of Man the tides are permanently slack. This is because at Carlingford we are at the place most exactly in the middle of the two flood and ebb streams that fill and empty the Irish Sea. We go up and down but not North or South. After that  we are in an East West stream that if we time it correctly will carry us towards the Lancashire coast. We need to arrive at Gut buoy around two hours before high water in order to enter the Ribble. High water at Carlingford and the Ribble occur at the same time. Assuming we can maintain an average speed of 5 knots it will take us 24hrs to cover the distance. If we ignore any tidal assistance and leave two hours before high water at Carlingford we should arrive at Gut buoy with either a bit of time to spare or in good time to begin the three hour trip up the river, ( the last 2 hrs of the flood )

However we need the wind to be in a suitable direction and strength to let us keep up a high average speed. Force 3-4 in any direction with west in it would be ideal.

The weather on Thurs isn't doing it,, besides the winds being so strong for most of the week would leave a very unpleasant residual swell, meaning we would probably be slopping about in big waves with no wind. Of course all predictions are essentially a gamble, but in this case the odds seem stacked against us. 

We decided to wait and see what next week would bring, this also means that as this coming weekend  is Easter weekend the Council is on holiday ( read lock keepers ) it will be next Wednesday before we can exit the sea lock.

At which point we will drop down the rver probably stopping at Warrenpoint or Greencastle and then if weather conditions look suitable, implement plan A above.

Of course you could ask why not just take advantage of the westerly gale force winds to fly across under a scrap of storm jib in the next couple of days, Dark Tarn will be doing 7-8 knots and will cover the distance easily. The answer to that is two fold.

As this will be our " shake down " trip, it would be rash and foolish to set off into conditions that will strain and punish most of the on board systems that we have hurriedly re-assembled. That includes the skipper and crew.

But more importantly, and very sensibly,

Lynne would hate me.

So that's that then...............that's how we plan and that's how we roll......